The World outlook
China’s economy stutters, investment in record low
China’s economy is displaying further signs of weakness, with data Tuesday showing investment slumped to a record low in the first seven months of the year and retail sales slowed.
Beijing faces a delicate balancing act, aiming to shift its growth driver away from investment and exports and towards personal consumption, while at the same time battling a mountain of debt.
A trade brawl with Washington has added to the difficulties — the yuan and stock markets have tumbled in recent weeks — providing relief to exporters but hurting Chinese consumers.
US tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods, and retaliatory levies from Beijing, came into force in early July, with more tit-for-tat measures due next week.
But the extent of the conflict’s impact on China remains unclear, said National Bureau of Statistics spokeswoman Liu Aihua. Trade data last week showed exports holding up in July.
“The negative impact will be gradual, with the impact on the international economy and the global economy already emerging,” Liu said.
Output at factories and workshops expanded 6.0 percent year-on-year in July, in line with June’s reading, according to the NBS but short of the 6.3 percent forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.
Retail sales, a key gauge of domestic consumption, rose 8.8 percent in July, down from nine percent in June, and also missing estimates of 9.1 percent.
Fixed-asset investment, the lifeblood of China’s economy, expanded just 5.5 percent in January-July, the slowest pace on record.
“We see further downside risks to economic activity in the coming months given that credit growth is still slowing,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics.
Last month China’s cabinet indicated it would step up its support for the economy and officials have said approval of infrastructure projects will quicken in the second half of the year.
But the International Monetary Fund has suggested Beijing should resist another round of aggressive stimulus to boost growth, citing concerns the measures would exacerbate already excessive debt levels.
Evans-Pritchard forecast Beijing’s moves could take months to kick in.
China’s economic growth slowed in the second quarter to 6.7 percent, from 6.8 percent in the first quarter.
“The Chinese economy will get worse before getting better, and it takes several months to turn around,” said Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura investment bank.
“Beijing will step up credit easing and fiscal measures to deliver a recovery and prevent financial troubles such as a rise of bond defaults,” Lu wrote in the research note.
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Company News
Vodafone holds off deploying Huawei in core network due to security row
The Vodafone logo is seen at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Spain, February 28, 2018. REUTERS/Sergio Perez
LONDON: 25 January 2019: Vodafone, the world’s second largest mobile operator, said it was “pausing” the deployment of Huawei equipment in its core networks until Western governments give the Chinese firm full security clearance.
The United States and some allies, including Australia and New Zealand, have banned Huawei from 5G networks because of alleged ties to the Chinese government, while the firm has denied that its technology could be used by Beijing for spying.
Vodafone’s Chief Executive Nick Read said on Friday after reporting third-quarter results that the debate was playing out at a “too simplistic level”, adding that Huawei was an important player in an equipment market which it dominates along with Ericsson Sweden’s Ericsson and Nokia.
“We have decided to pause further Huawei in our core whilst we engage with the various agencies and governments and Huawei just to finalise the situation, of which I feel Huawei is really open and working hard,” Read said.
Poland is set to exclude Huawei from 5G after it arrested a Huawei executive earlier this month on spying allegations. Huawei fired the man, who has denied wrongdoing.
Europe’s mobile industry would face higher costs and delays to faster networks if authorities imposed a blanket ban on Huawei equipment, particularly the radio technology deployed on mobile towers, Vodafone’s Read said.
Operators in Europe such as BT and Orange, have already removed Huawei’s equipment or taken steps to limit its future use.
Read said Huawei’s equipment was used in Vodafone’s core – which he described as the intelligent part of the network – in Spain and some other smaller markets.
European governments and security agencies had not pressurised Vodafone into taking the step, but the “noise level” had increased, and the debate now needed more facts, Read said, adding that governments in Africa and the Middle East, where Vodafone also uses Huawei, had not raised concerns.
A spokesman for Huawei, which become the world’s biggest telecoms equipment maker earlier this decade despite being shut out of the U.S. market, said it had been a long-term strategic partner to Vodafone since 2007.
“Huawei is focused on supporting Vodafone’s 5G network rollouts, of which the core is a small proportion. We are grateful to Vodafone for its support of Huawei and we will endeavour to live up to the trust placed in us,” he said.
However, Read said that Vodafone had already agreed terms with a range of 5G suppliers, so moving away from Huawei in parts of the roll-out would not incur additional costs.
TOUGH END TO YEAR
Shares in Vodafone fell after it reported a deterioration in its key revenue measure in the third quarter, down 40 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 0.1 percent, reflecting price competition in Spain and Italy and a slowdown in South Africa.
Analysts had expected growth of 0.3 percent and the stock fell to its lowest level since July 2010 after the update, trading down 2.9 percent at 140 pence at 1245 GMT.
Vodafone said, however, that competition in the Spanish and Italian markets had moderated through the quarter and it improved its level of churn, or the number of customers leaving, by two percentage points year-on-year.
The company’s Chief Financial Officer Margherita Della Valle said the performance improvements would start to show in the top line after the current quarter.
“We expect as we enter into the next fiscal year to start seeing the benefits in terms of revenue growth,” she said.
Analysts at UBS said Vodafone performed well in net adds and churn across Europe, but they expected fourth quarter service revenue to drop to –0.5 percent, driven by weakness in Spain and tougher comparatives in Britain.
“This is disappointing relative to prior comments that service revenues would be similar to the +0.5 percent seen in Q2,” they said.
Vodafone’s reiterated its guidance for this year of around 3 percent growth in underlying adjusted core earnings, with free cash flow before spectrum costs of about 5.4 billion euros.
Reuters
Governance
Euro zone bond yields slide as Brexit, U.S. shutdown sap risk appetite
Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May speaks in the House of Commons in London on Jan 15, 2019 ahead of the meaningful vote on the Government’s Brexit deal. (Photo: AFP/Mark Duffy/UK Parliament)
LONDON – 17 January 2019: Euro zone bond yields edged lower on Thursday after rising the day before, as markets continued to assess the outlook for the UK, and the U.S. shutdown failed to provide much direction to markets.
Eurozone bond markets have taken their cue this week from Britain, where Gilt yields rose on Wednesday after the UK parliament rejected a Brexit agreement.
Britain remained in focus after UK Prime Minister Theresa May survived a no-confidence vote on Wednesday night, though uncertainty over the passage of Britain’s exit from the European Union rumbled on.
Germany’s 10-year government bond yield, the benchmark for the region, opened 1.6 basis points lower to 0.207 percent while other 10-year bond yields in the euro zone slid around two basis points.
Euro area inflation figures, released at 1000 GMT, are expected to confirm flash estimates and drop to 1.6 percent year-on-year from 1.9 percent, brought down by lower gas prices.
The data “won’t give the markets any hint because of the storm in British Parliament and the prospect of delay in their departure from the euro zone,” said Commerzbank’s rate strategist, Rene Albrecht.
However, euro zone data are likely to surprise to the upside, Albrecht said. “We expect better data than sentiment indicators are. We think yields should bottom out at the long end.”
New supply is due from Spain, which will tap its 2021s, 2023s, 2024s and 2027s to raise 4 billion to 5 billion euros.
Elsewhere, Italian five-year government bonds continued to perform following Italy’s successful 15-year bond sale, which prompted a follow-on rally in Italian government bonds.
Italy’s five year government bond fell 13.5 basis points on Wednesday, its biggest one-day fall in over a month.
GOOD FOR GREECE Greek bond yields fell on Thursday after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras won a confidence vote in parliament, triggered by Greece’s approval of an accord to end a dispute over Macedonia’s name, which averted the prospect of a snap election.
Greece is widely expected to return to the debt markets in the coming weeks, with Italy’s deal likely to provide confidence to the southern European nation.
EU Economics Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said on Wednesday that Greece should regain full access to the debt markets and all efforts should be made to that end.
Greece’s 10-year government bond yield slipped in early trade to its lowest level since December 13 at 4.22 percent .
Company News
Diet Coke Unveils New Flavors and Marketing as Brand Refresh Enters Second Year
Diet Coke entered a new era in 2018 by debuting a modern new look, sleek new packaging, four bold new flavors and new marketing – with the goal of reenergizing and contemporizing the beloved brand for new drinkers and loyal fans alike.
And in 2019, America’s top-selling zero-calorie sparkling beverage is picking up where it left off with the introduction of two more flavors – Blueberry Acai and Strawberry Guava – and releasing new content as part of the “Because I Can” campaign.
The restage helped spark a 2018 turnaround for the brand, which posted retail dollar sales growth in Nielsen measured channels for four consecutive quarters after at least five years of decline.
“We focused on modernizing Diet Coke to appeal to a new consumer base while at the same time connecting with our core drinkers by preserving the essence of what makes this brand so special,” said Rafael Acevedo, group director, Diet Coke. “We took smart risks in our approach to this holistic brand restage, and everything worked together to generate excitement and draw new fans to the brand.”
Diet Coke Blueberry Acai and Diet Coke Strawberry Guava were selected from a shortlist of 20 options and tested with more than 2,000 Americans. The new flavors will offer even more variety to the existing Diet Coke lineup, which also includes Ginger Lime, Feisty Cherry, Zesty Blood Orange and Twisted Mango. They aim to satisfy adventurous fans’ thirst for bolder tastes and more dynamic experiences.
“These new flavors are highly incremental to our current flavors and will continue to drive excitement for the brand,” Acevedo said. “Flavor variety is key because it provides more points of entry into the brand. Different consumers have different favorites, so it’s important to offer a range. And we’re finding that when new drinkers try a flavor, they’re also more likely to reach for (original) Diet Coke.”
Both flavors, which hit stores nationwide in mid-January, are available in sleek 12-oz. cans and sold as on-the-go singles and in eight packs. A nationwide sampling activation will give people the chance to experience the new flavors through August. The six-month tour will hit 15 cities and more than 100 college campuses runs through August and. Learn more at DietCoke.com.
Fresh new marketing will launch in the coming weeks across all channels – from TV, to social, to experiential – and will extend the “Because I Can” invitation for fans to live life confidently and on their own terms.
“Last year’s campaign introduced Diet Coke’s new personality and philosophy,” said Tara Mathew Sahu, integrated marketing communications (IMC) director, Diet Coke. “As we enter year two, we aim to show how the brand delivers a refreshing boost to everyday moments.
She added, “Many of our newer fans were not even born when Diet Coke first launched in 1982, so they may see the brand as a choice of generations before them. We’re reframing the brand in a youthful, energetic and aspirational tone and showing how Diet Coke can fit into their lives.”
Acevedo said that while he’s encouraged by the brand’s rebound over the last year, the team has its eye on the long term.
“You don’t restage a brand the size of Diet Coke in one quarter or one year,” he added. “This is a multi-year plan, so it’s important to stay focused on our core strategy.”
Source: Nielsen AMC, Full-Year 2018
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